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Eight Things for Markets to Watch for in 2010

Posted: 23 Dec 2009 07:29 AM PST

No one can predict in the future, for instance 2 years before about the financial crisis, or maybe about the scandal of Tiger Woods, who is voted as Husband of the Year. Maybe there will be a suprising event in 2010. But at last, we need to see the Eight Thing that might grab our attention.

1. Tax Cuts
In the way of recession and run up huge deficits. In the middle of 2010, Europe start to think about decision in pro-business policies and lower taxes in order to solve the problem of recession and deficits. Germany is the leading the way (with $12,2 billion), and the rest Europe will catch up.

2. BT Group Plc and Vodafone Group Plc Merge
Low growth in business and fierce competition, make some companies need to merger or acquisitions. One important case is about link-up between British Telecomunication Companies (BT Group) with mobile-phone giant Vodafone (VOD), both are face rapid technological change and presure on their earnings.

3. News Corp. Sells The Times
Rupert Murdoch always seen as the smartest in media industry. He believe that in the future, people will pay for paper online. So why he do not sell this New York Time while it is still worth money?

4. An Italian Head of the European Central Bank
Jean Trichets term as president of the ECB will expire in 2011, but by the end of 2010, the jockeying for his job will already have started. Mario Draghi has impressed the markets as Bank of Italy Governor, and he worket at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. So maybe the Italian (Mario Draghi) as well add the ECB to the list.

5. U.K. Strikes
In May, Britain will get its first Conservative Government since Margaret Thatcher became prime minister in 1979.

6. Irish Economic Comeback
The Irish are in the doldums. The Economy has shriveled. The Budget Deficit will be catastrophic at 11.7 percent of gross domestic product in this year. But remember , the phrase "The Luck of Irish" wasn't coined for nothing. Along among the developed economies, the Irish have been ruthlessly purging the excess of the bubble. They have cut public spending, let house prices fall to a level where people can actually afford them, and kept corporate taxes low. By the end of 2010, while the rest of the world tried to figure out why taking on more debt isn't the best way to fix a debt crisis, the Irish Economy will come roaring back.

7. The Lawsuits Start Flying
When the going gets tough, the lawyers get busy.

8. "Long Fuses" Drive Us All Crazy
In the aftermath of any debt crisis, it takes a long time for the problems to become apparent. It depends on when debts come up for rescheduling, or how much cash companies have tucked away. Like Dubay, they will detonate, but they are on a long fuse. The trouble is that there are lots of long fuses out there and quiet a few explosions to come. So while it's a perfectly good phrase right now, by the end of 2010 we'll be fed up with it. We'll probably be fed up with the debt explosions as well.

Source : Summary the Eight Things for Markets to Watch for in 2010 from Matthew Lynn (www.businessweek.com)

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